Post Position Longshots

How to spot them; how to play them.

What is track bias

How to spot track bias

How to profitably play track bias

Track bias can happen when certain lanes in the race track become packed and offer less resistance to a running horse. Horses use less energy when allowed to run in these fast lanes and so can often win when they might not otherwise do so. More often than not the fast lanes will develop near the rail near post positions one through four.

Track officials watch for track bias and when it develops will use the first opportunity to correct it. A fast lane can be slowed by softening the dirt and a slow lane can be speeded up by packing the dirt. There are many ways to do this using equipment designed for the purpose. Minor adjustments can be made between races but heavy adjustments require a day free of racing.

Sometimes efforts to adjust track bias are successful and sometimes not. Many times a fast lane is adjusted too much making it too slow.

Horses are herd animals who have evolved to survive bouts with predators by outrunning them. They are very sure footed and left on their own will instinctively run on the best surface. When they sense that they are running across a slow area of the track they attempt to move from side to side to find a better lane.

This juggling for a good running lane is easy to spot and is one clue to a track bias. When horses avoid the rail you can bet that the rail is slow. Winners will tend to come from the outside and when coming around the stretch turn the pack will seem to rotate counter clockwise as outside horses outdistance those stuck in the slow inside lanes.

You can profitably play track bias by betting longshots that run in the lanes that are fast. This will usually be those near the rail being more likely for the #1 post and decreasing slightly out to the #4 post.

The Stk2002 profit or loss analysis considers the first four inside posts and assumes a $2 bet on each longshot that runs from one of those post positions. Multiple bets are assumed when they qualify and the numbers show accumulated profit or loss.

Fast lanes can also show up on the outside. These can be just as profitable, and many times more so because they are less likely to be recognized by the general public than fast inside lanes.