Testing the accuracy of the calculated odds

Importance of odds accuracy

Testing the odds accuracy

In horse racing the true odds are the single most important factor that will determine whether you win or loose. If you can determine the true odds and only bet when the tote board odds are greater than the true odds you will always win in the long run. This is a fact that sits at the heart every professional gambler's winning strategy.

Given that fact, we are then left with the the single most important task in beating the horse racing game. That is the task of determining the true odds of each horse in every race we intend to play.

Scientists have studied and maped out the laws of nature known as "statistical probability." They wrote down equations that describe how these laws work. All Stk software uses these equations to develop a true odds line.

We can test the accuracy of this odds line and adjust it by means of an "Odds Spread Variable" that will insure that it is truly a True Odds line. Remember that name, "Odds Spread Variable"; it is probably the most important variable of the Stk2002 profile set. You can adjust that variable to spread the odds so that the odds test shows the odds to be true odds.

This variable has the effect of making low odds lower and high odds higher. The greater the value of the odds spread variable the greater will be the spread between low odds and high odds. A larger odds spread number will tend to make the Accumulated Deviation more negative and a smaller odds spread number will tend to make the deviation more positive.

When the odds line is exactly correct the accumulated deviation will be exactly zero. This is how Stk2002 makes it so:

According to statistical probability a horse whose true odds are one to one will average a win every other time it runs. A horse whose true odds are two to one will average a win every third time it runs. True odds of three to one will average a win every 4th time it runs etc. This is called "Probable Wins".

For example, if we calculated odds of 10 to one for 22 horses in our past data two of those 22 horses must win if our calculations are exactly correct. The amount that the actual wins deviate from the calculated wins shows the error level. If only one of the 22 horses above actually won, the deviation error will be minus one. If two of them won, the deviation error will be zero showing that the calculated odds were exactly correct. If three of them won, the deviation error would be plus one showing that there were one too many winners at that odds level. The calculations were in error by +1 for that particular odds number.

Finally we show the Accumulated deviation adding the deviation of each odds number to that of the next starting at 1 to 1 odds and going up to 20 to 1 odds. When the accumulated deviation is zero for any odds number it means that all the odds to the left of that number are correct. Chance will cause individual odds numbers to be + or - by a small amount but the accumulated deviation shows the true picture.